See you in spring: overwinter survival is higher than post summer in the Alpine marmot

Animal species living in highly seasonal environments developed different strategies to cope with the periodical drastic change of environmental conditions. Hibernating mammals survive the winter season by reducing their activity and metabolism, and by centring their activities during the favourable season. Thus, the demography of these species depends upon both hibernating and active periods. In this study, we explored the apparent survival of Alpine marmots monitored between 2007 and 2018 in the North-Western Italian Alps. We fit Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to quantify changes in the apparent survival and capture probability of marmots, after the hibernation phase and at the end of the summer. Apparent survival after winter almost reached 100% and it was higher than post-summer survival. Moreover, while post-summer apparent survival remained almost stable over lifetime, with a slight increase with age, characterised however by wide confidence intervals, overwinter survival decreased with age, especially after 6 years of age. No temporal trends, nor changes between areas at different elevations, were found. We suggest that these results arise from a combination of climatic conditions, predation pressure and social dynamics, which is a pivotal feature of this species and cannot be ignored when considering population dynamics of Alpine marmots.