Derivation and Validation of the PRECISE-HBR Score to Predict Bleeding After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Background: Accurate bleeding risk stratification after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important for treatment individualization. However, there is still an unmet need for a more precise and standardized identification of high bleeding risk patients. We derived and validated a novel bleeding risk score by augmenting the PRECISE-DAPT score with the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk (ARC-HBR) criteria. Methods: The derivation cohort comprised 29,188 patients undergoing PCI, of whom 1136 (3.9%) had a Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) 3 or 5 bleeding at 1 year, from four contemporary real-world registries and the XIENCE V USA trial. The PRECISE-DAPT score was refitted with a Fine-Gray model in the derivation cohort and extended with the ARC-HBR criteria. The primary outcome was BARC 3 or 5 bleeding within 1 year. Independent predictors of BARC 3 or 5 bleeding were selected at multivariable analysis (p<0.01). The discrimination of the score was internally assessed with apparent validation and cross-validation. The score was externally validated in 4578 patients from the MASTER DAPT trial and 5970 patients from the STOPDAPT-2 total cohort. Results: The PRECISE-HBR score (age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, white-blood-cell count, previous bleeding, oral anticoagulation, and ARC-HBR criteria) showed an area under the curve (AUC) for 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.74) at apparent validation, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) at cross-validation, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80) in the MASTER DAPT, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) in the STOPDAPT-2, with superior discrimination than the PRECISE-DAPT (cross-validation: Δ AUC, 0.01; p=0.02; MASTER DAPT: Δ AUC, 0.05; p=0.004; STOPDAPT-2: Δ AUC, 0.02; p=0.20) and other risk scores. In the derivation cohort, a cut-off of 23 points identified 11,414 patients (39.1%) with a 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding risk ≥4%. An alternative version of the score, including acute myocardial infarction on admission instead of white-blood-cell count, showed similar predictive ability. Conclusions: The PRECISE-HBR score is a contemporary, simple 7-item risk score to predict bleeding after PCI, offering a moderate improvement in discrimination over multiple existing scores. Further evaluation is required to assess its impact on clinical practice.