Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Articolo
Data di Pubblicazione:
2025
Abstract:
Background: Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions. Methods: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15-24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990-2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage. Findings: Between 1990 and 2021, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, and that of obesity alone tripled. By 2021, 93·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 89·6-96·6) individuals aged 5-14 years and 80·6 million (78·2-83·3) aged 15-24 years had obesity. At the super-region level in 2021, the prevalence of overweight and of obesity was highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and the greatest increase from 1990 to 2021 was seen in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Taiwan [province of China], Maldives, and China). By 2021, for females in both age groups, many countries in Australasia (eg, Australia) and in high-income North America (eg, Canada) had already transitioned to obesity predominance, as had males and females in a number of countries in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) and Oceania (eg, Cook Islands and American Samoa). From 2022 to 2050, global increases in overweight (not obesity) prevalence are forecasted to stabilise, yet the increase in the absolute proportion of the global population with obesity is forecasted to be greater than between 1990 and 2021, with substantial increases forecast between 2022 and 2030, which continue between 2031 and 2050. By 2050, super-region obesity prevalence is forecasted to remain highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and forecasted increases in obesity are still expected to be largest across southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Timor-Leste and North Korea), but also in south Asia (eg, Nepal and Bangladesh). Compared with those aged 15-24 years, in most super-regions (except Latin America and the Caribbean and the high-income super-region) a greater proportion of those aged 5-14 year
Tipologia CRIS:
1.1 Articolo in rivista
Elenco autori:
A Kerr, Jessica; C Patton, George; I Cini, Karly; Habtegiorgis Abate, Yohannes; Abbas, Nasir; A Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H; Abd Elhafeez, Samar; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief; Abdollahi, Arash; Abdoun, Meriem; Morad Abdulah, Deldar; Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan; Abdullahi, Auwal; Madushika Abeywickrama, Hansani; Abie, Alemwork; Abiodun, Olumide; Abohashem, Shady; Abtahi, Dariush; Abualruz, Hasan; Abubakar, Bilyaminu; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; J Abukhadijah, Hana; ME Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Aburuz, Salahdein; Abu-Zaid, Ahmed; Adams, Lisa C.; Molla Adane, Mesafint; Yeboah Addo, Isaac; Ademola Adedokun, Kamoru; A Adegoke, Nurudeen; Olamilekan Adesola, Ridwan; Bunmi Adetunji, Juliana; Esther Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo; Adiga, Usha; Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Qorinah; Yousry Afify, Abdelrahman; Adeyimika Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo; Sohail Afzal, Muhammad; Afzal, Saira; Buddhika Agampodi, Suneth; Aghamiri, Shahin; Agostinis Sobrinho, César; Agyemang-Duah, Williams; Opoku Ahinkorah, Bright; J Ahlstrom, Austin; Ahmad, Aqeel; Ahmad, Danish; Ahmad, Fuzail; M Ahmad, Muayyad; Ahmad, Noah; Ahmad, Sajjad; Ahmed, Ayman; Ahmed, Haroon; A Ahmed, Luai; Sharif Ahmed, Mehrunnisha; Saleh Ahmed, Meqdad; Anees Ahmed, Syed; Ajami, Marjan; Ahmed Akkaif, Mohammed; E Akrami, Ashley; Al Hamad, Hanadi; Mahfuz Al Hasan, Syed; Al Ta'Ani, Zain; Al Thaher, Yazan; A Alalwan, Tariq; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Mustafa Al-amer, Rasmieh; Alansari, Amani; Al-Ashwal, Fahmi Y.; Albashtawy, Mohammed; Abeje Alemayehu, Bezawit; M Algammal, Abdelazeem; F Alhabib, Khalid; Alhuwail, Dari; Ali, Abid; Alemayehu Ali, Endale; Daud Ali, Mohammad; Usman Ali, Mohammed; Ali, Rafat; Ali, Waad; Mohammad Alif, Sheikh; Alimohamadi, Yousef; W Al-Jabi, Samah; Aljofan, Mohamad; Mohamed Aljunid, Syed; Alkhatib, Ahmad; Almahmeed, Wael; Al-Marwani, Sabah; A Alomari, Mahmoud; A Alqahtani, Saleh; A Alqarni, Abdullah; Alrawashdeh, Ahmad; Alrimawi, Intima; Majed Alrousan, Sahel; Z Alshahrani, Najim; Altaany, Zaid; Altaf, Awais; Jawad Alvi, Farrukh; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Al-Wardat, Mohammad; Mohammed Al-Worafi, Yaser; Aly, Hany; Aly, Safwat; H Alzoubi, Karem; Aman Mohammadi, Masoud; Getnet Amera, Tewodros; Amiri, Sohrab; Amu, Hubert; A Amugsi, Dickson; Adeniyi Amusa, Ganiyu; A Ananda, Roshan; Ancuceanu, Robert; Tahir Ansari, Mohammed; Ansari, Sumbul; Stephen Anuoluwa, Boluwatife; Adesola Anuoluwa, Iyadunni; Anvari, Saeid; Lukman Anwar, Sumadi; Edward Anyasodor, Anayochukwu; Pablo Arab, Juan; Arabloo, Jalal; Arafat, Mosab; Y Aravkin, Aleksandr; Areda, Demelash; Berhe Aregawi, Brhane; Arifin, Hidayat; Armocida, Benedetta; Ärnlöv, Johan; Arooj, Mahwish; Arora, Amit; A Artamonov, Anton; Dwi Artanti, Kurnia; Arumugam, Ashokan; Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ashraf, Tahira; Kwadwo Yeboah Asiamah-Asare, Bernard; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Shamsadin Athari, Seyyed; Atorkey, Prince; Atreya, Alok; Maratovna Aumoldaeva, Zaure; Ayenew Awoke, Mamaru; Wasiu Awotidebe, Adedapo; Birara Aychiluhm, Setognal; Azimi, Amirali; Abdulla Aziz, Sadat; Aziz, Shahkaar; Azzam, Ahmed Y.; Azzolino, Domenico; Babashahi, Mina; Rathnaiah Babu, Giridhara; Aboelnour Badran, Alaa; Bagheri, Nasser; Bai, Ruhai; Amin Baig, Atif; M Bakkannavar, Shankar; Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar; Constantin Baltatu, Ovidiu; Bam, Kiran; Banik, Rajon; Barati, Shirin; Bardhan, Mainak; Jawdat Barqawi, Hiba; Barquera, Simon; Barrow, Amadou; Barua, Lingkan; Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi; Basu, Saurav; Bayat, Reza; Tirfie Bayih, Mulat; Simegnew Bayleyegn, Nebiyou; M Beeraka, Narasimha; Behera, Priyamadhaba; Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Diana; Muhammad Bello, Umar; Belo, Luis; A Bennett, Derrick; Bergami, Maria; Berhe, Kidanemaryam; Assefa Berihun, Abiye; Singh Bhadoria, Ajeet; Bhala, Neeraj; Bharadwaj, Ravi; Bhardwaj, Nikha; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhaskar, Sonu; Nagesh Bhat, Ajay; Bhattacharjee, Priyadarshini; Kaur Bhatti, Gurjit; Singh Bhatti, Jasvinder; Bilgin, Cem; Bisignano, Catherine; Biswas, Bijit; Bizzozero Peroni, Bruno; Bjertness, Espen; Bjø
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