ID:
509688
Duration (hours):
51
CFU:
6
SSD:
TECNICA DELLE COSTRUZIONI
Year:
2025
Overview
Date/time interval
Primo Semestre (22/09/2025 - 24/10/2025)
Syllabus
Course Objectives
Students are expected to learn and fully understand the probabilistic methods used for assessing the risk posed to portfolios of assets by natural events, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones. Students are also expected to become familiar with the basics of insurance and reinsurance, whose applications drive most of the catastrophe models developed in the industry. Students are also expected to learn the probabilistic methods for assessing earthquake risk to single structures located at a specific site.
Course Prerequisites
Knowledge of probability and statistics is a must and of Monte Carlo simulation is recommended. Knowledge of structural dynamics of linear systems is a must and of nonlinear systems is recommended.
Teaching Methods
Lectures on theoretical and practical issues. Projects solved independently by students under the supervision of the teachers (when needed)
Assessment Methods
Written final exam mostly focused on Part 1 of the course and two projects that focus on Part 2 and Part 3 of the course.
Texts
Handouts and scientific papers made available during the course
Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, by J. Baker, B. Bradley and P. Stafford, Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling - a Practitioner's Guide, by K. Mitchell-Wallace, M. Jones, J. Hillier and M. Foote, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2017
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters, Edited by Gero Michel,Elsevier Inc., 2018
Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, by J. Baker, B. Bradley and P. Stafford, Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling - a Practitioner's Guide, by K. Mitchell-Wallace, M. Jones, J. Hillier and M. Foote, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2017
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters, Edited by Gero Michel,Elsevier Inc., 2018
Contents
This course comprises three distinct but well-connected parts. The main focus of the course is on seismic risk but it will also deal with risk assessment for other perils, such as hurricanes.
This course will start with a very succinct overview of the basics of probability and statistics that are commonly used in the field of hazard and risk assessment. After this short preamble, in the first part we will move on to describe the basics of risk assessment and loss estimation for assets subject to natural events, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In this part we will also review the fundamentals of seismic hazard analysis and we will cover both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Then we will deal with the theory behind catastrophe risk modeling of portfolios of structures mostly for earthquakes but will briefly discuss tropical cyclones as well. The applications discussed are typical of those found in the insurance/reinsurance industry, capital markets, and sovereign disaster risk financing. Therefore, some fundamentals of insurance/reinsurance will also be provided. Then we will introduce the concepts of seismic risk for single structures and we will compare and contrast them with the approach for portfolio of assets. Time permitting, the risk assessment of networks and of nuclear power plants will also be discussed. These cases have special aspects that are not found in the previous applications addressed during the course.
The second part of the course will tackle in detail the state-of-the art approach to assess seismic risk of single buildings for both collapse and loss estimation purposes. The techniques that you will learn here are applicable both to the design of new buildings and to the assessment of existing ones.
Finally the third and last part will focus on the application of the portfolio seismic risk assessment theory to real case studies. In this part you will be using models already built and the emphasis will be in learning how to compute and interpret correctly their results.
This course will start with a very succinct overview of the basics of probability and statistics that are commonly used in the field of hazard and risk assessment. After this short preamble, in the first part we will move on to describe the basics of risk assessment and loss estimation for assets subject to natural events, such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In this part we will also review the fundamentals of seismic hazard analysis and we will cover both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. Then we will deal with the theory behind catastrophe risk modeling of portfolios of structures mostly for earthquakes but will briefly discuss tropical cyclones as well. The applications discussed are typical of those found in the insurance/reinsurance industry, capital markets, and sovereign disaster risk financing. Therefore, some fundamentals of insurance/reinsurance will also be provided. Then we will introduce the concepts of seismic risk for single structures and we will compare and contrast them with the approach for portfolio of assets. Time permitting, the risk assessment of networks and of nuclear power plants will also be discussed. These cases have special aspects that are not found in the previous applications addressed during the course.
The second part of the course will tackle in detail the state-of-the art approach to assess seismic risk of single buildings for both collapse and loss estimation purposes. The techniques that you will learn here are applicable both to the design of new buildings and to the assessment of existing ones.
Finally the third and last part will focus on the application of the portfolio seismic risk assessment theory to real case studies. In this part you will be using models already built and the emphasis will be in learning how to compute and interpret correctly their results.
Course Language
English
Degrees
Degrees
CIVIL ENGINEERING FOR MITIGATION OF RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
Master’s Degree
2 years
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People
People (3)
Teaching staff
Teaching staff
Teaching staff
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