Mapping the path to zero: 3D high-resolution spatial analysis of building energy consumption and solar generation potential in Singapore

The building sector’s substantial contribution to global energy consumption and emissions necessitates innovative approaches to achieve sustainability targets. This study develops a high-resolution spatial assessment framework for evaluating nearly zero energy building (NZEB) potential through photovoltaic (PV) integration in tropical urban environments, using Singapore as a case study. We combine top-down and bottom-up methodologies to overcome limitations of traditional 2D approaches, implementing 3D urban modelling with Rhinoceros/Grasshopper and Cyclops to accurately capture mutual shading effects and facade solar potential in high-density contexts. Using Singapore’s Building and Construction Authority energy benchmarks and Urban Redevelopment Authority building classifications, we assessed 85,197 buildings across four PV deployment scenarios. Results reveal that buildings consumed 6.21 million tons of oil equivalent, with three distinct high-consumption zones identified. PV systems could generate 20.02 TWh from rooftops and 4.27–9.97 TWh from facades annually, achieving theoretical substitution rates of 27.70–41.50 % via annual energy balance assessment. Two-stage temporal analysis using 8760-hour profiles reveals daily self-sufficiency of 26–64 % without storage, requiring 4–6 h battery capacity to bridge theoretical potential with practical viability, yielding storage-inclusive payback periods of 3.2–8.3 years. Spatial analysis at 0.3 km × 0.3 km resolution identifies central Singapore as having the highest NZEB potential, while certain areas face challenges due to high energy demands and limited solar access. Cost-benefit analysis demonstrates economic viability with payback periods of 2–3 years and net incomes of SGD 127.27-150.33 billion over 25 years. This framework provides crucial insights for urban energy planning in tropical cities, offering a replicable methodology for assessing renewable energy integration potential at the city scale.